In his recent article about Bubble 2.0 on PCMag.com, John C. Dvorak gives us his view about the beginning of the end of the Web 2.0 era. He compares previous experiences from the last such crisis, the DotCom bubble burst, when the very thing that made everyone money, e-commerce, was the very thing to bring down the whole system. He then takes a look at some key players on today’s web which in his opinion will contribute to another bubble burst, each in its own way - neo-social networking, video mania, user-generated content, mobile everything, ad-leveraged search, widgets and toolbars.

In my opinion, the Web in its modern concept, will always have periodical crises, resulting in what we might call bubble bursts, to stay consistent with a term already coined from past experience. Let’s keep in mind the Internet, as a specific communication concept, even though growing very fast, is still somewhat immature. The reason for this is not in the concept upon which the Internet works, although this is arguable if we look at content issues (open source vs. copyrighted, non-standard content viewing platforms and such), but more within us as users of such a technology. For the Internet to truly become a more stable environment, apart from its own evolution, it is also us who have to change, or better yet adapt.

As long as the primary goal of everyone using the Internet, for whatever reason, is to get rich quickly and easily, we will have periodical downfalls. Other complex systems involving a large number of subjects (cities, big companies, natural ecosystems) all have periodical restructuring moments. Let’s think of it as excess pressure release, when the system simply has to undergo drastic change in order to stabilize. This may sound like physics, but in essence it really is. When internal combustion engines came to life more than a hundred years ago, only a few people saw a potential ecological danger, although we really enjoyed fast cars, comfortable limos and racing. Today, we are faced with what’s probably the most important problem modern mankind has faced, apart from third-world poverty and underdevelopment.

In the 90’s it was great to make tons of money from color rich banner advertisements, and collect investments for companies whose income was based solely on creating banner advertising environments. Then, in the late 90’s, a problem surfaced, that had actually been growing from day one. The system’s limitations were reached…

The last bubble burst taught us that business models without solid foundation and long-term strategy are doomed to end abruptly, when the fuel runs out, so to speak. The aftermath was a new kind of approach to online business, which brought some pretty interesting developments in the past years, some of which are still going on. This new approach spawned yet newer methods of attracting what in essence is the food for online business - attention and visitors. We are now deep inside something we call the social web, which has its great characteristics, but also drawbacks. If all we do is think of new ways to arise interest in the minds of Internet surfers, and base our getting rich wishes on that, then it is inevitable we will run into a wall at some point in the future. Products and useful information, that translates in to the material world, is what constitutes the basis of online business survival (ways to find solutions to real-life needs and problems, which almost always come down to something material). Having a large number of resources for achieving top rankings for your site just to display ads and make money off is a great way to live, but at some point the system will not be able to take any more. There is only so much potential in a system, and when that point is reached, we will see signs of deceleration and the need for proper reaction.

If your business is solely based on online income sources, without at least regard for real-world business bases, I think you are in trouble. Remember, if the bubble bursts, all your knowledge of advanced web development methods and techniques won’t be worth that much. In order for someone to make money online, there has to be a corresponding basis offline.

Hmm, I may have gone a bit too far Anyway, we already have advancements based on the first bubble burst experience. When the next one comes, the Bubble 2.0 burst, I think we will have a lot more experience and material for advancement in online technology and methods, and hopefully in way of thinking.

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